Price Scares, Time Teaches

 

I have 15 years of experience in the real estate market. But I have lived in the same place for 43 and a half years: Time.

And it is within time that the greatest lessons about real estate appear—not in spreadsheets, but in real life.

I remember it like it was yesterday: 2004. My mother was called as a "lucky recipient" in a Cohab project (public housing) in Londrina. She attended meetings, registered, faced long lines, paperwork, and anxiety. She was self-employed and managed to get credit approved for 15 years with a simple declaration from her employer at the time—something that seems unthinkable today.

She was able to choose a house. The cost of the first installment? R$ 180. The minimum wage? R$ 260. We were renting downtown for R$ 150. The new house was far away. It had no faucets, no outlets, and no perimeter wall. And the thought circling her head was the same one I hear in the market to this day:

"Is it worth it?" "Will I actually be able to afford the payments?"

Besides the mortgage, there were commuting costs for three people. Comfort decreased. The budget tightened. But time... ah, time began to work its magic.

Fifteen years flew by. In 2019, my mother received her payoff statement and filed the final deed in her name. That house that cost R$ 25,000—the one that was "too far," "too small," and "expensive for the time"—is now on a 250 m² lot with only 60 m² of construction. In 2004, it was modest. Today, you could build two houses on that same lot—selling each for nearly R$ 300,000.

What changed? The property? Or time?

A few years later, already working in the market, I remember my first sales through the Minha Casa Minha Vida program at Spazio Le Parc, by MRV Engenharia, also in Londrina. Apartment price: R$ 82,000. Down payment: 24 installments of R$ 200. Financing: R$ 400 per month for 25 years. Subsidy: R$ 15,000. Minimum wage at the time: R$ 510. Ideal family income: R$ 1,240.

Buying alone was difficult. Many people bought with a brother, cousin, partner, or friend. But those who bought... they caught the first wave.

If we look at the timeline, there were only 6 years between my mother's house (60 m² for R$ 25k) and a 48 m² apartment for R$ 82k. It seemed expensive. It always seems expensive.

Today, those people are more than halfway through their mortgage, paying around R$ 300 to R$ 320 per installment. Meanwhile, the rent for those same units is between R$ 1,200 and R$ 1,350. And the market value ranges from R$ 210,000 to R$ 250,000.

Again, what made the difference? It wasn't the price. It was the timing.

I hold a simple, almost uncomfortable thesis: Price doesn't matter as much as the moment.

Sometimes you buy something more expensive, yes. But the "framework" is favorable:

• Extended terms

• Installment-based down payments

• Available subsidies

• Active federal benefits

• Interest rates compatible with your income

• And, primarily, entering the market while it's still at the beginning of the curve.

That isn't luck. That is correct guidance. Those who wait for the "ideal price" usually arrive late. Those who understand time enter while there is still a choice.

The real estate market doesn't break. It selects. It selects those who understood the cycle. Those who accepted temporary hardship. Those who traded immediate comfort for future equity.

If you look back today and think, "If only I had bought back then..." Know this: that sentence always repeats itself. Only the date changes. And someone, in the future, will look at right now and say exactly the same thing.

The only real question is: 👉 Will you be the one watching... or the one entering at the right time?